Factores determinandes do endividamento na administraçao localO caso dos municipios portugueses

Resumen

This thesis addresses Portuguese municipalities¿ debt. The main purpose is to identify its determinant factors, also seeking to analyse in what ways those determinant factors affect the debt. The literature reviewed allowed to perceive that, within the scope of the study of municipal debt, researches have pursued different objectives, highlighting however those related to analysing the impact of legal and financial markets restrictions, those that search the existence of debt strategic cycles, and those which study debt determinant factors. The positive quantitative research developed in this study is comprised within the scope of different explaining theories of debt, namely public choice (in particular the debt strategic cycles), fiscal illusion, and institutional theory (in the form of coercive and mimetic isomorphism), hence used in a complementary way. To accomplish the proposed objectives, after collecting the data, we have pursued with the statistic treatment using several techniques: bi-variate analysis, panel data models, and structural equation models. One must highlight that, as far as it is our knowledge, up to now there are not studies, national and international, that have ever applied structural equations in analysing public entities¿ debt. Findings show that there was no reduction of debt in Portuguese municipalities, during the period 2004 to 2009. On the contrary, a statistically significant trend was identified, for a global increasing. Statistic evidence also allowed proving the existence of municipal debt strategic cycles in Portugal, showing that net debt in municipalities presents higher amounts in electoral years. One could additionally conclude that there are several determinant factors of municipalities¿ debt in Portugal. In what concerns institutional factors, the tourist capacity and debt maximum legal limit (the latter only for large municipalities) affect it positively. As to political-ideological factors, one concluded, opposing the expected, that governments of left wing parties present lower levels of debt than those of right wing parties. One could also prove that the electoral cycle variable is positive related with debt. At fiscal level, findings evidenced that proper revenues negatively affect municipalities¿ debt. Regarding financial-economic/budgetary factors, one observes that total expenditure, purchase power index (this one only for medium-size municipalities) and unemployment positively influence debt. In turn, investment and current balance present a negative relationship. Lastly, structural equations model analysis allowed to verify, to the whole of Portuguese municipalities, that constructs representing fiscal and budgetary conjunctures present a statistically significant and negative relationship with municipalities¿ debt, opposing the economic conjuncture, which evidenced a positive relationship. Institutional conjuncture has not revealed significant in explaining Portuguese municipalities¿ debt. Comparing two groups of municipalities with higher and lower debt levels, only the negative relationship with constructs representing fiscal and budgetary conjunctures was validated.