Estimation of the impacts of air pollution and climate change on mortality over Europe

Abstract

Nowadays, the population on the whole world is threatened by the adverse effects caused by climate change and air pollution. Both events have impacts on human health. The main objective of this thesis is to estimate the impact of air pollution and climate change on the health of the European population, both for a present reference period (1991-2010) and for the difference expected on the future scenario under climate change (2031-2050, RCP8.5). This objective allows us to understand the climate change impact has itself on European population. This estimation will be carried out through different methodologies in the different chapters that are presented and from different approaches. Statistical tools such as SPSS or spreadsheets will be used to establish Pearson or Poisson correlations, as well as climate models (WRF-Chem) to create future climate change scenarios have been used. In order to estimate the number of cases, in addition to the correlations, both linear and non-linear exposure-response functions are used. Regards to the results obtained on this Thesis, on Chapter 2 linear exposure-response functions have been used for the estimation of the impacts. European big cities, Ruhr Valley and European eastern are the areas where is presented more cases and costs. Besides, it is expected an increase of both variables on European southern for the future scenario (RCP8.5, 2071-2100). 418,700 cases of annual premature deaths have been estimated for the present period. An increase of 94,900 cases for the future period have been estimated. Moreover, costs will increase from 173 billion per year to 204 billion per year by the end of the century. On the other hand, on Chapter 3 non-linear exposure-response functions have been used. 895,000 annual premature deaths have been estimated in Europe due to PM2.5 for the period 1991-2010. The most affected areas are located in center Europe and European megacities. Besides to take into account the action of climate change, if population dynamics is considered, an increase of 71.96% is expected for the future period (RCP8.5, 2031-2050), 1,540,000 annual cases. The regions where are expected the greatest increase are south and east of Europe. On Chapter 4, the results obtained for the estimation where is considered a mitigation scenario where the 80% of the energy production come from renewable sources, 1,480,000 annual premature deaths have been estimated for the same future period. An increase of 71.67% compared with the present period. In the case of the results obtained in chapter 5, where the effects provoked by extreme events caused by climate change, as wildfires, have been studied. A correlation between PM10 and burned area in some Portugal NUTS III (regions) have been found, as well as a significant correlation between burned area and mortality. The most affected areas are located in northern, central and inland of Portugal. In conclusion, air pollution and climate change have serious impacts on human health provoking the increase of hospital admissions, chronic diseases or even premature deaths. It should be born in mind that these results are an estimation. These results are associated to different variables that sometimes are difficult to project. The results presented show that the action of governments and public entities should focus on the regulation of air pollution and climate change; and implement mitigation policies leading to improving air quality and therefore, the wellness of the European citizens.