La reversión de las cuentas corrientes en los países periféricos de la Zona Euro

  1. José García Solanes 1
  2. Fernando Torrejón Flores 2
  3. Carlos Ruíz Sánchez 2
  1. 1 Universidad de Murcia
    info

    Universidad de Murcia

    Murcia, España

    ROR https://ror.org/03p3aeb86

  2. 2 Universidad Católica San Antonio
    info

    Universidad Católica San Antonio

    Murcia, España

    ROR https://ror.org/05b1rsv17

Revista:
Revista de economía mundial

ISSN: 1576-0162

Año de publicación: 2018

Número: 49

Páginas: 57-78

Tipo: Artículo

DOI: 10.33776/REM.V0I49.3888 DIALNET GOOGLE SCHOLAR lock_openArias Montano editor

Otras publicaciones en: Revista de economía mundial

Objetivos de desarrollo sostenible

Resumen

We analyze the current-account reversals in the peripheral countries of the euro zone (ZES), Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal and Ireland, during the financial crisis episode. After determining the trend and start date of reversals, we investigate the involved economic costs in each country using a Keynesian model for open economies. We estimate the model with panel data of the period 1999-2013. Our results indicate that each country of the sample suffered significant costs in terms of GDP losses, going from 32% in Greece to 6% in Ireland. Results allow us to derive policy prescriptions for the governments of both peripheral and northern economies of the Eurozone.

€ Ver financiación

Información de financiación

Darvas (2012a, 2012b) y Tressel y Wang (2014) examinaron el proceso de reequilibrio de la cuenta corriente de los países del euro con posición externa deudora, concluyendo que la reversión de los déficits externos de esos países estaba llegando a su fin en 2012. Darvas sugirió que el Banco Central Europeo (BCE) implementara políticas expansivas para debilitar el euro y fortalecer las exportaciones de la zona hacia terceros países; circunstancia que atenuaría los costes de los ajustes en los países del sur. Wolff (2012) y De Grauwe (2012), pusieron en evidencia el carácter asimé-trico de los procesos de reequilibrio externo en la zona euro, resaltando que tienen lugar casi exclusivamente mediante medidas contractivas que reducen los costes laborales unitarios en los países del sur. Estos autores proponen que los países del norte, en especial Alemania, adopten políticas expansivas para que los ajustes sean más simétricos y que los costes de los mismos se compar-tan de manera más equitativa.

Financiadores

Referencias bibliográficas

  • Ahearne, A., Schmitz, B. and von Hagen, J. (2009): Current Account Imbalance and Financial Integration in the Euro Area, unpublished manuscript, Bruegel and University of Bonn.
  • Atoyan, R., Manning, J. and Rahman, J. (2013): “Ralancing: Evidence from Current Account Adjustment in Europe”, IMF Working papers 74-2013.
  • Auer, R. (2013): “Rapid Current-account Rebalancing in the Southern Euro-zone” VoxEu.org, mayo 2013.
  • Blanchard, O. and Giavazzi, F. (2002): “Current Account Deficits in the Euro Area: The End of the Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle”, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2, pp. 148-186.
  • Blanchard, O. and Milesi-Ferretti, G. M. (2016): “Global Imbalances: Past, Present, and Future”, Istambul Papers on Current Macro and Financial Issues. IMF Research Department.
  • Bonatti, L. and Fracasso, A. (2012): “The German Model and the European Crisis”, Journal of Common Market Studies, 51 (6), 1023-1039.
  • Bornhorst, F., and Ivanova, A. (2011): “Current-account Imbalances: Can Structural Policies Make a Difference in Germany?” VoxEU.org, 15 August.
  • Cavallo, M. and Tellie, C. (2006): “Could Capital Gains Smooth a Current Account Rebalancing?” Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, Staff Report no. 237, January.
  • Darvas, Z. (2012a): “The Limits of a Purely Intra-euro Rebalancing Strategy”, VoxEU.org, September.
  • Darvas, Z. (2012b): “Intra-euro Rebalancing is Inevitable, but Insufficient”. Bruegel Policy Contribution, 2012/15, August.
  • De Grauwe, P. (2012): “In Search of Symmetry in the Eurozone”. Comment of Centre for European Policy Studies, May 2.
  • De Grauwe, P. and Ji, Y. (23013): “The Legacy of Austerity in the Eurozone”, CEPS Commentary, October.
  • Edwards, S. (2004): Thirty Years of Current Account Imbalances, Current Account Reversals and Sudden Stops”, IMF Staff Papers. Special Issue, 2004, 51(0), 1-49.
  • Edwards, S. (2005): “The End of Large Current Account Deficits, 1970-2002: Are There Lessons for the United States?, in The Greenspan Era: Lessons for the Future”, The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pp. 205-268.
  • European Commission (2012): “Current account surpluses in the EU”, European Economy 9/2012.
  • European Commission (2016): “The Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure. Rationale, Process, Application: A Compendium”, European Economy Institutional paper 039.
  • García-Solanes, J. Torrejón Flores, F. and Ródenas-Monedero, I (2017): "Ex-change rate and macroeconomic adjustment in souther eurozone coun-tries", Economic System, 41, pp. 639-650.
  • Hobza, A., and Zeugner, S. (2013): “Current-account Surpluses in the Eurozone: Should They Be Reduced?”, VoxEU.org, 26 April.
  • Iversen, T., Soskice, D. and Hope, D. (2016): “The Eurozone and Political Economic Institutions”, Annual Review of Political Science, Vol. 19, pp. 163-185.
  • Lane, P. (2010): “International Financial Integration and the External Positions of the Euro Area Countries”, OECD Economics Department Working Papers, 830.
  • Lane, P. and Milesi-Ferretti, G. M. (2012): “External Adjustment and the Global Crisis”, Journal of International Economics, 88(2): 252-265.
  • Lane, P. and Pels, B. (2012): “Current Account Imbalances in Europe”, IIIS Discussion Paper No 397, April.
  • Milesi-Ferretti, G. M. and Blanchard, O. (2011): “(Why) Should Current Account Balance Be Reduced?” IMF Economic Review 60(1), 139-150.
  • Sinn, H. W., and Valentinyi, A. (2013). “European Imbalances”, VoxEU.org, 31 March.
  • Stockhammer, E. and Sotiropoulos, D. (2014): “Rebalancing the Euro Area: The Costs of Internal Devaluation”, Review of Political Economy. 26(2):210-233.
  • Tressel, T., and Wang, S. (2014): “Rebalancing the Euro Area and Cyclicality of Current Account Adjustments”, IMF working papers, 130.
  • Wolff, G. (2012): “Arithmetic is Absolute: Euro-area Adjustment”, Bruegel Policy Contribution, 2012/09, May 2012.
  • Wyplosz, Charles (2010): “Germany, Current Accounts and Competitiveness”, VoxEU.org, 31 March
Fuente de los datos: Dialnet