La reversión de las cuentas corrientes en los países periféricos de la Zona Euro

  1. José García Solanes 1
  2. Fernando Torrejón Flores 2
  3. Carlos Ruíz Sánchez 2
  1. 1 Universidad de Murcia
    info

    Universidad de Murcia

    Murcia, España

    ROR https://ror.org/03p3aeb86

  2. 2 Universidad Católica San Antonio
    info

    Universidad Católica San Antonio

    Murcia, España

    ROR https://ror.org/05b1rsv17

Revue:
Revista de economía mundial

ISSN: 1576-0162

Année de publication: 2018

Número: 49

Pages: 57-78

Type: Article

DOI: 10.33776/REM.V0I49.3888 DIALNET GOOGLE SCHOLAR lock_openArias Montano editor

D'autres publications dans: Revista de economía mundial

Objectifs de Développement Durable

Résumé

We analyze the current-account reversals in the peripheral countries of the euro zone (ZES), Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal and Ireland, during the financial crisis episode. After determining the trend and start date of reversals, we investigate the involved economic costs in each country using a Keynesian model for open economies. We estimate the model with panel data of the period 1999-2013. Our results indicate that each country of the sample suffered significant costs in terms of GDP losses, going from 32% in Greece to 6% in Ireland. Results allow us to derive policy prescriptions for the governments of both peripheral and northern economies of the Eurozone.

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Darvas (2012a, 2012b) y Tressel y Wang (2014) examinaron el proceso de reequilibrio de la cuenta corriente de los países del euro con posición externa deudora, concluyendo que la reversión de los déficits externos de esos países estaba llegando a su fin en 2012. Darvas sugirió que el Banco Central Europeo (BCE) implementara políticas expansivas para debilitar el euro y fortalecer las exportaciones de la zona hacia terceros países; circunstancia que atenuaría los costes de los ajustes en los países del sur. Wolff (2012) y De Grauwe (2012), pusieron en evidencia el carácter asimé-trico de los procesos de reequilibrio externo en la zona euro, resaltando que tienen lugar casi exclusivamente mediante medidas contractivas que reducen los costes laborales unitarios en los países del sur. Estos autores proponen que los países del norte, en especial Alemania, adopten políticas expansivas para que los ajustes sean más simétricos y que los costes de los mismos se compar-tan de manera más equitativa.

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