Recessions and external imbalances

  1. Estefanía-Flores, Julia 1
  2. Furceri, Davide 1
  3. González-Domínguez, Pablo 1
  4. Jiménez, Daniel
  1. 1 International Monetary Fund
Revista:
Cuadernos económicos de ICE

ISSN: 0210-2633

Año de publicación: 2022

Título del ejemplar: Desequilibrios exteriores y crisis de deuda soberana

Número: 103

Páginas: 205-235

Tipo: Artículo

DOI: 10.32796/CICE.2022.103.7469 DIALNET GOOGLE SCHOLAR lock_openAcceso abierto editor

Otras publicaciones en: Cuadernos económicos de ICE

Resumen

Este artículo analiza empíricamente la relación entre crecimiento económico (y las recesiones) y los desequilibrios de la cuenta corriente a escala nacional y global. Los resultados sugieren que los desequilibrios globales de cuenta corriente son fuertemente procíclicos, y que la fuerte y positiva correlación entre crecimiento global y desequilibrios no está impulsada únicamente por reducciones de crecimiento de calado. También encontramos que recesiones pasadas y crisis financieras, tanto específicas de un país como las globales, tienden a estar precedidas por un incremento de desequilibrios de cuenta corriente y son seguidas por persistentes y pronunciados ajustes. Este patrón se encuentra en marcado contraste con el incremento en desequilibrios globales observado durante la crisis de la COVID-19.

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