Consecuencias del cambio climático en la disponibilidad de agua en el Sureste de la Península Ibérica. Evaluación del modelo hidrológico INVEST en escenarios futuros

  1. Pedro Pérez Cutillas 1
  1. 1 CEBAS-CSIC
Revista:
Papeles de geografía

ISSN: 0213-1781

Any de publicació: 2018

Número: 64

Pàgines: 26-42

Tipus: Article

DIALNET GOOGLE SCHOLAR lock_openDIGITUM editor

Altres publicacions en: Papeles de geografía

Resum

Water scarcity characterizes the environments of the southeast of the Iberian Peninsula, and it is expected to increase due to the effects of climate change. An analysis of 30 basins was perform to assess their consequences through the hydrological model of the ecosystem services assessment INVEST. Scenarios of concentration of greenhouse gases were used, that represent intermediate and extreme conditions in the level of radiative forcing values (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), projected for two periods, short term (2020-2050) and medium term (2070-2100). In the analyzed scenarios, the Results indicated some trends of change, showing average decreases of 15% in precipitation, and average increases of 5% in potential evapotranspiration, regarding current values. Water yield showed a decrease, with negative variation rates between 30 and 50% for the most realistic scenarios (RCP45 2050 and RCP45 2100). The effects on the decrease of water resources due to climate change are visible, therefore solutions related to water management and future services will be demanded

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