Evaluación del riesgo de fracaso empresarial a través de modelos de predicción dealerta de crisisuna década después

Abstract

The usefulness for decision making of prediction models of business failure is unquestionable. In previous studies it was possible to observe how the sample of companies is determinant both in the development as in the validation of prediction models. Through the present work, we want to compare the extent to which different crisis alert prediction models made a decade ago are valid today. For this, we analyze the application of individual and global forecast models, developed under different criteria, in five economic activities; we will verify if still happens the higher prediction degree of the models as the time of business failure approaches and also if the prediction ability of the models is the same in a cycle of expansion than in a cycle of crisis. The results allow us to conclude the validity of the models a decade later.