Estimación de futuros escenarios de nivel del mar en Valencia a través de datos de mareógrafos
- Antonio Daniel Ibarra Marinas 1
- Tuuli Inkeri Pöllänen 2
- Marcos Ruiz Álvarez 1
- Francisco Belmonte Serrato 1
- Gustavo Ballesteros Pelegrín 1
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1
Universidad de Murcia
info
- 2 The Open University
Publisher: Asociación de Geográfos Españoles
Year of publication: 2017
Pages: 647-654
Congress: Congreso de Geógrafos Españoles (25. 2017. Madrid)
Type: Conference paper
Abstract
The global sea level rise is one of the most pertinent consequences of climate change. This phenomenon is a result of two factors linked to the increase of the global temperatures: the thermal expansion of the ocean, which has decreased in the recent years, and the melting of the terrestrial ice, which has increased respectively. Studies related to the sea level rise show great spatial variability in sea level changes. This study focused on the coastal area of Valencia, located on the Mediterranean coast of the Iberian Peninsula, SE Spain. The methodology used (Fraile Jurado et al, 2014) consisted of the estimation of sea level changes, using a simple linear regression to analyze the correlation between the gauge records from the Port of Valencia and a global series of tide gauges. Three possible RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) scenarios, RCP2.8, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 were considered. The results show increases in sea levels ranging from 0.23m up to 0.29 m, (R2 = 0.56), by the end 21st century. Possible consequences include the intensification of the effects of maritime storms and increased vulnerability of the coastal areas.