El voto económico y estudio de agendas en Españaaproximación a sus efectos en las elecciones generales del 2000 y 2011

Resumo

Research objectives: The main aim of this doctoral thesis is offering empirical evidence of the influence of economical context perception and its political management on political behaviour in Spain, during 2000 and 2011 general elections. The elections being studied imply a privileged scenario to test the hypothesis of asymmetric voting, since they are disparate economic contexts, where economy appears as the main issue of debate in political competition. In this sense, in an attempt to understand the role of the media in the construction of citizen perception of the economic context, an agenda setting analysis is carried out for the electoral cycle of 2008-2011, as well as an analysis of the covers of the two main national print media, in the previous period to 2000 and 2011 general elections. Methodology: This dissertation combines different strategies and research techniques, framed in statistical analysis. First, two models of economic voting are being tested through two logit equations, with poll data from the public opinion studies that the Centre of Sociological Research (Spain) carries out periodically. The agenda setting and newspapers covers analysis are implemented using the technique of content analysis, and different mathematical strategies are employed to stablish the relationship between public agenda and media agenda. Conclusions: The essential findings of this research emphasize the importance of economical context perception and its political management on political behaviour in Spain, during the general elections being studied. Contrary to what the hypothesis of asymmetric voting holds, the testing of the equations of vote points to a greater impact of economic factors in 2000 general election (during an expansive stage of the economic cycle), than in 2011 general election (in a context of economic recession). Moreover, the analysis results also show a greater weight of the vote based on economic expectations than retrospective voting, mainly in the 2000 general election. The importance of economic factors in voting is verified in both elections. Nevertheless, the impact of economic factors is more relevant in the vote to the Partido Popular than in the vote to the Partido Socialista Obrero Español. Similarly, there is a significant weight of social policies in political behaviour, with a greater influence in the vote of the Socialists, which is related to theories of Policy-Oriented Voting. Furthermore, the research results confirm the influence of the perception of the hypothetical management of the opposition (if it would govern) on the vote to the party in the government. As for the agenda setting analysis of the 2008-2011 cycle, the evidence shows a considerable coincidence between the media and public agenda, as far as economic issues are concerned. In addition, there is a greater correlation between agendas when it comes to matters that are far from the individual experience of the voter, especially related to economic reforms or to general affairs of the state of the economy. In this sense, the analysis results point to a relevant role of the national print press in the definition of the citizen perception of the economic situation, particularly with regard to the construction of the crisis as a social problem; thus supporting the generation of a climate of opinion which in turn would act as a reinforcement of personal predispositions, ultimately affecting electoral behaviour.