An automatic algorithm to date the reference cycle of the spanish economy

1. Maximo Camacho
2. María Dolores Gadea
3. Ana Gómez Loscos

Esportatu

Esportatu ×

MLA

modern-language-association

APA

apa

Chicago

chicago-fullnote-bibliography

Harvard

harvard-cite-them-right

Vancouver

vancouver-author-date

---

RIS BibTex

Esportatu ×

Dokumentua ezin da beste atari batetik esportatu.

Testu osoa

lock_openTestu osoa externo

DIALNET GOOGLE SCHOLAR lock_openSarbide irekia editor

Beste argitalpen batzuk: Documentos de trabajo - Banco de España

Garapen Iraunkorreko Helburuak

• 

Laburpena

This paper provides an accurate chronology of the Spanish reference business cycle by adapting the multiple change-point model proposed by Camacho, Gadea and Gómez Loscos (2021). In that approach, each individual pair of specific peaks and troughs from a set of indicators is viewed as a realization of a mixture of an unspecified number of separate bivariate Gaussian distributions, whose different means are the reference turning points and whose transitions are governed by a restricted Markov chain. In the empirical application, seven recessions in the period from 1970.2 to 2020.2 are identified, which are in high concordance with the timing of the turning point dates established by the Spanish Business Cycle Dating Committee (SBCDC).

Datuen iturria: Dialnet